Over the course of more than four years and 200 episodes, Gamble On has established itself as the leading gaming industry podcast, delivering news and analysis as well as interviews with the most influential names in gambling every week.
Episode 209, posted Sept. 15, 2022, features an interview with professional sports bettor Bill “Krack” Krackomberger, who was one of the stars of the Showtime docu-series Action and now co-hosts a Sunday morning NFL betting show on FOX Sports Radio. For some, wagering on NFL games is about having a good time. That’s not the goal for Krackomberger.
“I’m looking to do this to make money,” he said bluntly. “I’m not looking for fun.”
Listen to “209: GeoComply NFL Week 1 data, dwindling bonuses, NFL betting with pro Bill Krackomberger” on Spreaker.
Krack’s money quotes
Week 1 in the NFL was very successful overall for the sportsbooks, thanks to just enough favorites losing outright.
“People love to go the counter and just bet moneyline parlays. ‘I don’t want to lay the 7 points. Let me do a moneyline parlay.’ It’s the biggest sucker bet in the world,” Krack said. “People love to put all those moneylines together — ‘it’s gonna be so much easier.’ They got their head handed to them [last] weekend.”
“The hardest thing to beat in this country is NFL sides.” The one and only @BillKrackman talks #NFL betting, Week 1 surprises, and what NOT to overreact to for Week 2 on the latest episode of #GambleOn: https://t.co/4sEUGGBepz pic.twitter.com/xB8YFePeEv
— US Bets (@US_Bets) September 16, 2022
Krackomberger on the near-impossibility of winning long-term wagering on NFL sides: “The NFL is the hardest thing to beat. I always said ‘N-F-L’ stands for ‘not for long’ for your bankroll if you want to mess with it that long.”
Krackomberger on what markets he has the most success betting on: “I like betting first month of college basketball. I think the lines are very soft. If anyone doesn’t beat that, I don’t know how they don’t do it. Listen, my favorite thing the last three years was definitely betting the [NFL] draft. I mean, the draft, I was like 90 percent. It’s impossible — you can’t be 90 percent, but … I had some really good information this year.”
Krackomberger on the poor bankroll management approaches he sees from many amateur gamblers: “I can guarantee this, everyone that’s down at casinos in Atlantic City … the people that are there betting, you can guarantee, they’re bringing $1,000 with them, and it’s all going in action. Like $250 a game, which, if your bankroll’s a dime, you should be betting $20 or $30 a game.”
Podcast hosts Eric Raskin and John Brennan analyzed geolocation company GeoComply’s figures from the first weekend of NFL betting, which showed an overwhelming number of hits coming from the trio of New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. “I always had the feeling the Northeast had the most gamblers outside of Las Vegas,” Brennan said, “and 43.1 percent [combined coming from] only three states? That kind of confirms it.”
The once-oversized sportsbook sign-up bonus offers have shrunk in most states, and while the experts aren’t surprised it’s happening, some didn’t expect it to happen so quickly. “Everybody warned us when sports betting came to your state [New Jersey] and my state [Pennsylvania],” Raskin said to Brennan, “take advantage of the bonus offers and the big boosts while you can, because they won’t last forever. They are burning out maybe faster than some expected, they’re certainly burning out faster in New York, in large part because of the tax rate. But whatever state you’re in, you can’t expect more than a couple of years before the books aren’t giving you much in the way of free money.”
Brennan and Raskin also discussed the deceiving wording of “risk-free bets” and agreed that “no-sweat bets” isn’t really all that much more honest. So Raskin suggested that something along the lines of “second-chance bet” would be more accurate — although admittedly not as tantalizing to potential customers.
The latest twists and turns in the topic of legal U.S. election betting include Kalshi asking the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to allow the company to offer election markets, and PredictIt supporters suing the CFTC for shutting their site down. “The suit calls legal betting on elections ‘the greatest gift to society,’” Brennan noted. “Seems like an overbid to me.” Added Raskin: “How can the CFTC be shutting down PredictIt and saying yes to Kalshi at the same time? If that’s the result, if they say yes to Kalshi right after shutting down PredictIt, it lends a lot of credence to the conspiracy theories.”
Closing thoughts: Brennan wrapped up the podcast with a classic old-man-shakes-fist-at-clouds rant about the NFL moving Thursday Night Football to something called an Amazon Prime. Fortunately, he resisted using the phrase “back in my day” at any point during said rant.