The Oscars are less than three weeks away, and after the Directors Guild Awards this past Saturday and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) awards Sunday … well, there’s been some clarification in where the Oscars voting may be headed, but there’s also been some muddying of the waters.
Let’s take a peek at where America’s sportsbooks that offer legal betting on the Academy Awards stand on the six major categories:
Everything Everywhere All at Once has shot up the odds boards in recent months. At the beginning of all this, months ago, it could’ve been had for +1400 at PointsBet. As of Tuesday morning, the best odds could be found at bet365, at -275.
So can any film pull an upset?
Right now, the one movie picking up steam is the German remake of All Quiet on the Western Front, which pulled a BAFTA upset the other night. On Tuesday, the best odds for this movie sat at +1000 at FanDuel. As recently as a month ago, it was +6600 at bet365.
7 BAFTA wins, including Best Film.
9 Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture.
All Quiet on the Western Front is now on Netflix. pic.twitter.com/iAJJP4OioR
— Netflix (@netflix) February 20, 2023
This is probably as much fanfare, however, as All Quiet will get, as it’s not nominated for the Daryl F. Zanuck Award for outstanding producer at the Producers Guild Awards next week, nor is it nominated for best ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild awards.
So is there another film that might upset Everything?
The Banshees of Inisherin is +650 at bet365, and is nominated for both the PGA and SAG awards, so … maybe?
Austin Butler took home the BAFTA for his role in Elvis, and with it, saw his Oscar odds get shorter. Heading into the weekend, he was +275 at DraftKings; he’s since dropped as low as +100 at DraftKings (though he’s +150 at PointsBet).
This video is enough to prove why Austin Butler is winning so many acting awards for portraying Elvis. pic.twitter.com/69fDBBp7nn
— daily austin butler 💭 (@archivebutler) February 20, 2023
Brendan Fraser is still the favorite for his role in The Whale, with the best odds at -120 at bet365.
The dark horse is Colin Farrell for his role in Inisherin, with odds as long as +800 at PointsBet.
All three are nominated at the SAG awards, and whoever wins will likely become — or remain — the betting favorite heading into the Oscars.
Cate Blanchett remains the favorite after her BAFTA win for Tar, with odds at -275 at bet365. She was -175 heading into the weekend.
The other contender is Michelle Yeoh from Everything, and she fell from +120 (at DraftKings) to +187 (at bet365).
Again, both are nominated at the SAGs, and copy/paste the “whoever wins” bit from the best actor blurb above.
This category saw another monster BAFTA upset, as Barry Keoghan won for his role in The Banshees of Inisherin, topping Ke Huy Quan for his role in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
And the stateside Oscars markets perked up — just a bit. Heading into the weekend, Quon was a -2000 favorite at DraftKings, and Keoghan the third choice at +1200 (his castmate Brendan Gleeson was at +600.) As of Tuesday, Quon is “down” to -1000 at bet365, and Keoghan is “up” to +1000 at FanDuel. Both are nominated at the SAGs.
Watch Ke Huy Quan’s emotional #GoldenGlobes2023 acceptance speech, where he thanks Steven Spielberg and his #EVerythingEverywhereAllAtOnce teammates pic.twitter.com/9qEfdf9vPr
— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) January 11, 2023
The BAFTAs delivered a mild upset in this category, with Kerry Condon of Inisherin taking the prize over Oscars favorite Angela Bassett for her role in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
In this case, however, the oddsmakers took notice stateside. Bassett entered the weekend as a -500 favorite at DraftKings and exited the weekend as low as -280 at FanDuel (though she is still -400 at DraftKings.) As for Condon? She went from +300 to +190.
Of all the major awards, this one had the biggest odds shakeup. Heading into the weekend, the Daniels — Kwan and Scheinert — were -200 for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Steven Spielberg was second, at +135, after starting the awards season — and spending a good majority of it — as the favorite.
Well, the Daniels took home the Directors Guild Award, which has predicted the Oscars best director winner in 17 of the last 20 years. Coming out of the weekend, the Daniels were listed as high as -1200 at bet365, though FanDuel halved that and then some to -550.
But if you think Spielberg may stage a late-game comeback for The Fabelmans … well, he was all the way at +600 at PointsBet on Tuesday morning. Of all the potential upsets on the board, this is the one that feels most possible, as Hollywood generally has a difficult time not celebrating itself, and Spielberg directing what amounts to his origin story could prove tough to pass on.
Photo: Samir Hussein/Getty Images