NFL Trade Deadline Deals Barely Move Super Bowl Futures

bradley chubb justin herbert

Here are two statements that are absolutely true: 

Tuesday was the most raucous trade deadline day in NFL history, with 10 trades made.
Sportsbooks looked at the players moving around, went to their respective safe rooms (or wherever they make the lines), and decided that the sum total of the moves was more or less Shakespearean in nature — much ado about nothing.

That was a record-setting @NFL trade deadline.

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 1, 2022

The team that made the biggest splash was, without question, the Miami Dolphins. They acquired defensive end Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos and running back Jeff Wilson from the San Francisco 49ers. 

Chubb was the biggest name to be moved at the deadline and will provide the Dolphins with much-needed non-blitz pressure on opposing quarterbacks, as the Fish currently have the 30th-lowest sack rate in the league.

Wilson will theoretically become part of a 1-2 running back punch with Raheem Mostert (Chase Edmonds, who disappointed in his time in Miami, was shipped to Denver in the Chubb deal).

On Tuesday morning, before these two deals, the Dolphins were +3500 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings. And after these two big moves? The Dolphins went to … +3000 to win the Super Bowl on DraftKings.

The @MiamiDolphins are literally doing everything right. This is epic. #FinsUp

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) November 1, 2022

Is this a significant line move? Not really. Especially when the Bills, the favorite at the beginning of the day to win the Super Bowl at +250, dropped to +225 as the day wore on. The Bills picked up backfield receiving specialist Nyheim Hines from the Indianapolis Colts for Zack Moss and a conditional 6th rounder.

Some stood pat

Worth noting: Some sportsbooks didn’t see fit to move any odds based on the above deals. Caesars, for example, stood firm across the board.

There were some other moves at DraftKings in the Super Bowl market as the day wore on. The Raiders, who were 60/1 heading into last weekend, lost to the Saints and stood pat on trade day, and as a result their odds ballooned to 100/1. 

Then there were the seemingly big deals that got a collective yawn. Take the Minnesota Vikings picking up T.J. Hockenson from the spiraling Detroit Lions. The Vikings started the day at +1800 on DraftKings to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and now, with Hockenson in the fold, the Vikings woke up Wednesday morning to find themselves … +1800 on DraftKings to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Despite the relative “all quiet on the western front” nature of the trade deadline when it comes to odds, there were a few moves that could shake up the fantasy football landscape.

And to use a third literary reference, let’s call this section …

A brave new world

The Bears: With the addition of Chase Claypool — who may be awesome, or not, the jury is still out — the Bears now have two NFL-level wide receivers (the other being Darnell Mooney) for the seemingly rapidly improving Justin Fields to throw to. Could the Bears actually be fun to watch down the stretch? Maybe. And with +1260 odds to make the playoffs on FanDuel (they’re currently 3-5), it might be worth the smallest of sprinkles.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: The Cooper Kupp east of the Mississippi (checking Google Maps to make sure that’s correct … and it is) already had an otherworldly 33% target rate when he was on the field. That number is sure to grow without Hockenson. And for deep leagues, the man to watch is James Mitchell, a rookie tight end who is expected to be the main receiving TE moving forward for the Lions.

Wait ‘til next year: How about that Calvin Ridley? The suspended player — betting on NFL games is a big no-no — hopes to be reinstated next year, and if he is, he’ll be plying his trade in Jacksonville next to Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence. That’s a theoretically dangerous trio — if Lawrence can make the leap.

One lucky bettor under the user name NotRidley18 will cash out $5,000 after placing a +10000 bet on Calvin Ridley’s next team to be the Jaguars seemingly less than 2 hours ago.

— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) November 1, 2022

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY

Author: Ryan Gonzales