Are you a far-right Republican? A far-left Democrat? A moderate?
Doesn’t matter the answers to the questions above; if you’re an American and if you spend more than three seconds thinking about the 2024 presidential election, you’re probably already in a deep existential crisis.
In short: If you thought the 2020 election was a nightmare, the 2024 election is already asking you to hold its beer.
But while the election — and assorted near-guaranteed crises — are still more than two years away, it hasn’t stopped DraftKings from getting ahead of the game and posting odds for the election.
Well, at least the Ontario, Canada arm of the DraftKings mobile sportsbook has posted odds, as wagering on the presidential election is not legal at regulated sportsbooks here in the United States.
[email protected] in Ontario has posted odds on the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Donald Trump is the favorite at +250, followed Ron DeSantis at +350 and Joe Biden at +550.
Betting on elections is not allowed at sportsbooks in the US. pic.twitter.com/muRDWYLhPi
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) July 13, 2022
Is there value to be found in the Great White North? Is it worth taking a trip up there to get down some action? That’s what we’re about to explore, and don’t fret — I took a 100-level political science class in 1992. Full analysis below, with the odds as of July 19 …
Well, ‘full analysis’
Donald Trump +250: Mother always said if you don’t have something nice to say …
Ron DeSantis +300: Mother always said if you don’t have something nice to say …
Joe Biden +550: Mother always said if you don’t have something nice to say …
Kamala Harris: +1200: Mother always said if you don’t have something nice to say …
While I admit the #analysis above is lacking, what you’re looking at are the four favorites right now.
And one of them presents some legitimate value (and two others, moderate value).
Why? If you head on over to PredictIt, Trump is trading at 29 cents, DeSantis 28 cents, Biden 21 cents, and Harris 8 cents. Turn those into American odds, Trump would be +244 at PredictIt, DeSantis would be +257, Biden +376, and Harris +1150. So assuming the PredictIt traders are the wiseguys here, Biden is clearly a sharp bet. So is, to a lesser extent, DeSantis, and to a much lesser extent Harris. Of course, this is assuming my math is correct (+250).
Sixpence? More like Fourteenhundredpence
Mike Pence +1400: I mean, I’m tuning into the GOP debate if Pence is sharing the stage with Trump. There will be some serious Will Smith-Chris Rock energy there.
Nikki Haley +2500: This is lighting money on fire. I have a difficult time seeing a path for Haley, with or without Trump in the primary. Again: #analysis
Pete Buttigieg +2500, Gavin Newsom +3000, Michelle Obama +3500: Lumping these Democrats together as they all present the same basic value option: If you think Biden doesn’t run, if you think Harris doesn’t get the Democratic nomination, and if you think a Democrat will win in 2024, these are your current two best options (in Buttigieg and Newsom) and your clear-the-field candidate in Obama. There is probably a little value in sprinkling a few bucks on all three.
Can you smell …
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +4000: Oh, baby. Now we’re talking. While we have now entered “this is not — in any way, shape, or form — a good bet” territory, I am rationally excited about the potential for The Rock to be president of the United States. Note I didn’t say “irrationally” excited; I am legit tickled by the idea. I can, in fact, smell what The Rock is cooking.
Here’s the thing: You don’t need me to tell you we live in a fractured society right now. Every single candidate mentioned thus far will not be able to do anything to heal the cracks. But The Rock? Everyone likes The Rock. Plus, he’s expressed interest in the job. Plus, he exudes strength. Plus, he’s a cool dude. Plus, Trump has proved — for better or worse — prior political experience is not necessary to get elected. Plus, The Rock’s politics seem to be relatively benign (reading between the lines, socially liberal and fiscally conservative). Plus, in a 2021 poll, 46%(!) of Americans said they want him to run. Plus, he’s the freaking Rock.
MOVIE IDEA: Republicans nominate The Rock to run for president in 2024 and Democrats nominate Dwayne Johnson
— Matt Oswalt (@MattOswaltVA) December 6, 2021
Longshots, no shots, and Kanye
Hillary Clinton +4000: See “what mother always said.”
Elizabeth Warren +4500: Remember when she seemed like the Democratic front-runner for a minute in the lead up to 2020? Yeah, me neither, and she’s already said she’s not running for president in 2024. Stay away.
From here on in, we’re getting into longshot territory, but “longshot” implies they actually have a chance. I mean, Kristi Noem at +5000? Come on. So much would have to go wrong with the Trump and DeSantis trains for Noem to find a lane. Same with Ted Cruz (+5000).
And do you think the Democrats are really going to nominate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+6500)? Just stop.
Perhaps the best longshot politician bet is Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan at 100/1. Hogan is a Republican who has been dealing with a Democratic-controlled legislature for eight year but has gotten plenty done on the economic front. He has a 65% approval rating in his state and pitches himself as a “moderate.” In short: He’s a Republican that independent-leaning Democrats could vote for. Of course, he’d have to somehow get through the primary, but at 100/1, why not?
As for a few of the other celebrity types on the list:
Tucker Carlson +5000: (Packing bags, moving to Costa Rica.)
Jeff Bezos +6500: (Making sure Amazon Prime still works in Costa Rica.)
Ivanka Trump +8000: (Putting down payment on Costa Rican villa.)
Kanye West +10000: OK, fine, this one I’ll stay stateside for. Just a shame we wouldn’t have Kim Kardashian as the first lady. Sigh.