It’s the most wonderful time of the year: college football bowl season.
The NCAA’s regular season is over, which means we get an abundant number of college football postseason games beginning at 11:30 a.m. ET Friday when Miami Ohio faces UAB in the Bahamas Bowl.
Only three bowl games impact the national championship race, while the other 40 serve as entertainment for college football diehards. The games also offer a chance for teams to end their seasons (and for seniors, their careers) on a high note.
With college football fans turning their attention to bowl season, let’s take a look at notable game lines and some sports betting advice for those planning to wager on bowls.
College Football Playoff odds
We can’t ignore the College Football Playoff, so let’s start there.
No. 1 Georgia faces No. 4 Ohio State in one College Football Playoff semifinal, while No. 2 Michigan faces No. 3 TCU in the other. Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite over the Buckeyes at most mobile sportsbooks, including BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel. Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over the Horned Frogs at most sites, including Barstool Sportsbook.
Chase Kiddy, a sports betting analyst at BetMGM and host of The Lion’s Edge podcast, plans to bet an exact national championship outcome.
“I generally don’t like bets like this, but this playoff feels so obvious and chalky to me that I’m going to recommend it,” Kiddy told US Bets. “I think Georgia will fend off Ohio State, and Michigan will comfortably handle TCU. Then, I think Georgia will beat Michigan and go back-to-back. Give me Georgia to beat Michigan in the national championship game at +125 right now; if nothing else, it should give me all kinds of interesting hedge options in January.”
Spreads are now up at @CaesarsSports for all four potential national championship matchups…
Ohio State -2.5 vs. Michigan
Georgia -8 vs. Michigan
Ohio State -10.5 vs. TCU
Georgia -17.5 vs. TCU
— Max Meyer (@TheMaxMeyer) December 5, 2022
Should Georgia and Michigan meet in the national championship, it would be a rematch of last season’s semifinal playoff game between the two programs. Georgia won that meeting 34-11, although JJ McCarthy wasn’t starting at quarterback for the Wolverines.
McCarthy has been stellar this year for the Wolverines, adding more explosive plays to the team’s offense. Michigan used big plays to blow by Ohio State in its regular-season finale, and McCarthy has his sights set on a national championship.
“I love our chances,” McCarthy said after winning the Big Ten Championship. “Last year it was kind of the bright lights, everything was new, Big Ten Championship, College Football Playoff. Going into the offseason it gave us so much momentum, and we knew that we could get there, and we could get back. Ultimately, this whole offseason it was about winning it.”
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General bowl betting advice
While Kiddy plans to make some College Football Playoff bets in advance, he usually recommends bettors wait until game day. With opt-outs, transfers, injuries, illnesses, and more, lines can swing wildly in the weeks between a scheduled game and a kickoff.
“The problem with bowl season as it’s currently played … is that it’s virtually impossible to figure out which direction a line is going to go, because there are so many extra variables,” Kiddy said.
“What if seven offensive linemen hit the transfer portal? What if all the skill guys on a really good team decide to sit out the bowl game ahead of the NFL Draft, because they were disappointed they missed out on the playoff? What if everyone in the quarterback’s room catches COVID 31 hours before kickoff? These aren’t crazy scenarios — these are all things that have happened, in one form or another, over the last couple of years.”
Kiddy advises patience as it relates to wagering on bowl games.
“My best advice to anyone in the space is to wait until the day a game is played before actually handicapping the game,” Kiddy said. “Who’s available? Who’s not? How badly does the team want to be there?”
The Action Network’s Collin Wilson, a prominent college sports handicapper, put together a document with important information for each bowl game. The page, which tracks opt-outs, coaching changes, injuries, etc., is a worthwhile resource for bettors seeking quick information on multiple bowl games.
Bowl season tidbits
The College Football Playoff understandably draws the most headlines, but plenty of other bowls will intrigue fans.
Iowa-Kentucky has the lowest over/under total of any bowl game, listed at 31.5 points at most sportsbooks. Kentucky quarterback Will Levis, a top NFL prospect, opted out. Iowa’s offense has been abysmal this season. As a result, the game is expected to be celebrated by the college football crazies, who love the potential for an ugly defensive struggle.
An SP+ projection of 25 points that DOES NOT BAKE IN THE FACT THAT NEITHER TEAM’S QB IS PLAYING, I need to add, per @ESPN_BillC. This is just going to be a grime scene. A true test of how much a person likes football
— Alex Kirshner (@alex_kirshner) December 12, 2022
The game on Dec. 31 will take place before the two College Football Playoff games later in the day.
For those who prefer plentiful scoring, Oregon-UNC has a total of 72 points. North Carolina’s offense is electric, but the Tar Heels stink defensively. Oregon is favored by 14 points, the largest spread of any bowl game this year.
While Kiddy didn’t recommend betting on the Tar Heels, he does believe playing moneyline underdogs is a decent bowl season strategy. The Action Network’s bowl trends article backs up this logic, and it notes that betting the moneyline for the 87 double-digit bowl underdogs since 2005 would’ve led to a 25.7% return on investment.
“Every year, bowl season is filled with weird results that no one saw coming — make sure you tap into that big ROI potential,” Kiddy said.
Several games, including Louisville-Cincinnati, Ohio-Wyoming, and Wake Forest-Missouri, have 1-point spreads at some sportsbooks. If you’re seeking out close games, those fit the bill, as does Friday’s game between No. 24 Troy (-1.5) and No. 25 UTSA.
Photo: Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY
